← All writing by Austin Zehnder
By Austin Zehnder, October 2026
San Francisco is moving against the national trend. Mortgage rates have climbed back above 7 percent, yet bidding wars are intensifying as wealth tied to the AI sector pours into the city.
Anthropic's public S-1 filing on October 26 spotlights where that wealth is coming from, and how much more could follow. The filing reports $16.3 billion in first-half revenue, up roughly 1,300 percent year over year. Reports say the San Francisco-based company could be valued above $2 trillion at its Nasdaq debut.
The money is concentrated, and it is already showing up in record prices. On October 22, 20 Cherry Street sold for $28.5 million, $10 million above its $18.5 million asking price, a San Francisco city record.
It is not just trophy homes. Redfin's data shows the pressure is citywide: more than 140 San Francisco homes sold at least $1 million over list in the first half of 2026, up from 8 a year earlier.
One in three San Francisco homes sold all-cash from January 1 to September 1. Some AI employees whose pre-IPO stock is still locked up are taking quiet loans against it to make all-cash offers, trading speed and certainty of execution for a winning bid.
With rates above 7 percent, certainty of close is a competitive edge. As Milan Jezdimirovic of Compass put it, a cash offer can close in under two weeks, and that speed gap often decides who wins.
AI is pulling the two tech hubs in opposite directions. Redfin data from July 2026 puts San Francisco's median sale price at $1.6 million, up 6 percent year over year, with listings down 18.4 percent. Seattle's median sale price was $809,000, down 3.6 percent year over year, with listings up 16.7 percent.
Chen Zhao of Redfin summed it up this way: AI is reorganizing the tech labor market, with San Francisco and Seattle representing two sides of that transition.
Redfin links Seattle's slowdown to layoffs at Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Expedia. Microsoft is now offering voluntary buyouts to about 60,000 employees, roughly a quarter of its workforce, across the U.S., U.K., Canada, and India.
San Francisco agent Alexander Lurie cautions that the IPOs will not necessarily bring new buyers for homes under $5 million, but they will lift ultra-high-end budgets. For investors and borrowers, the question is not whether AI wealth is real. It is already in the closing prices. The question is how much more follows, and how long a tight, all-cash market can run against 7 percent mortgage rates.
Sources: Anthropic S-1 filing, October 26, 2026; Redfin data, July 2026; SF Standard, September 20, 2026; The RealDeal, July 7, 2026; Inman reporting Redfin data, September 2, 2026.